politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Bernie Sanders complicates the betting on November’s US Senate elections

He may have stood the for Democratic WH2020 nomination but he’s not part of the party in the US Senate

The other really big election taking place in the United States on November 2nd is for the US Senate where currently the Republicans have 53 of the 100 seats. If indeed Trump is ousted on that day the Democratic victory will only be really meaningful if the party takes the Senate as well. This is going to be far from easy.

Every two years about a third of the Senate seats come up for election and senators have a six-year term and this year four or five Senate races could cause the upper house to flip.

Inevitably there is going to be a big betting focus on these elections which is why it is do important to read the specific rules that each bookmaker uses. Betfair has it like this:

A majority of seats requires either party to control at least 51 of the 100 Seats in the US Senate. Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market.

So Bernie and a Senator from Maine who also sits as an independent don’t under this definition count towards the Democratic party total even though effectively they caucus together and the media would declare the party the overall Senate winner if the Republicans lose four seats.

Ladbrokes and other bookies have their main markets on Republican seats in order to get round this issue.

On Betfair, currently “no majority” is the favourite and that looks a good bet under the above definition.

Mike Smithson

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