Trevor Lawrence’s Tigers face FCS Citadel this week. (Photo by David Dennis/Icon Sportswire)
- Week 3 of the college football season sees a big slate of games on Saturday, September 12th
- Two Heisman trophy candidates take to the field in Trevor Lawrence and Chuba Hubbard
- See why we’re on Clemson and Oklahoma State, and want to fade Navy within the story below
If you followed my two upsets picks from last week, you’re probably in the black right now.
A $100 bet on both underdogs would have earned $570 of profit to work with this week. Whether you took advantage or not, Week 3 has some games offering incredible value.
Here are three picks ATS to consider this Saturday.
Pick #1: Clemson Will Fail to Cover the Spread Again
|Team||Spread||Moneyline||Total at FanDuel|
All odds taken Sep. 16th
Trevor Lawrence opened up his final season at Clemson with an incredible performance. He had 351 yards passing and a touchdown, while adding another two scores on the ground.
It was the type of all-around performance you would expect from the projected number one pick in the next NFL draft.
So why am I fading the Tigers?
Despite the incredible start to the season, Clemson still failed to cover the number by 10 points in their 37-13 victory over Wake Forest.
College Football MVP’s of the Week
Offense: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson QB
Defense: Shemar Jean-Charles, App State CB pic.twitter.com/u3l7gJRreB
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 14, 2020
It appears Vegas has made it a goal to not be beaten by Clemson. No other team entered the season with more buzz and the oddsmakers know the public will be betting them hard.
What should you do when the public is all over a favorite? Fade them aggressively. Clemson will play big games this year but this isn’t one of them. Expect them to sleep walk to an easy victory while resting their starters for much of the game. Take the Citadel to cover the mountain of points they are being given.
Pick: Citadel +44.5 (-105)
Pick #2: Oklahoma State Will Win Opener With Ease
|Team||Spread||Moneyline||Total at DraftKings|
|Tulsa||+23 (-110)||+950||O 66 (-110)|
|Oklahoma State||-23 (-110)||-2000||U 66 (-110)|
Another giant spread, but this time the smart play is to side with the favorites. Oklahoma State open their season against a program that has traditionally struggled against the Big 12.
Tulsa is 5-15-1 in their last 21 games against the conference and there’s little to suggest they’ll turn that record around in this one. They had a nine day pause in their preseason camp due to a number of positive coronavirus tests in their program.
A roster with limited talent working with limited preparation time isn’t a formula for success.
Most forced missed tackles in the Big 12 last season:
1. Chuba Hubbard – 77
2. Pooka Williams Jr – 74 pic.twitter.com/wUNxAxQ0xU
— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 12, 2020
This wager isn’t only about disliking Tulsa. Across the field is an Oklahoma State team that could be the best fielded in the Mike Gundy era. Take a look at the Heisman Trophy odds and you’ll see returning star running back Chuba Hubbard.
He decided to return to Stillwater after racking up 2,094 rushing yards and 21 touchdowns on the ground last season. Hubbard is a two thousand yard back lining up against a defense that allowed 2,221 rushing yards (185 per game) last year. He’s going to go off and could cover this number all by himself by the end of the day.
PICK: Oklahoma State -23 (-110)
Pick #3: Navy Will Lose Another Game In Ugly Fashion
|Team||Spread||Moneyline||Total at DraftKings|
|Navy||+7.5 (-110)||+205||O 49.5 (-110)|
|Tulane||-7.5 (-110)||-265||U 49.5 (-110)|
Navy was embarrassed in their season opener against BYU. In fact, that’s actually an understatement.
At the end of the day it was a 52-3 loss for the Midshipmen that would certainly send them rushing back to the drawing board.
Well, that’s not exactly how it played out. Instead of focusing his attention on the task at hand, head coach Ken Niumatalolo has been busy arguing over whether Air Force should be able to qualify for the Commander-In-Chief’s trophy.
#Navy coach ken Niumatalolo: “That game was 1,000 percent my fault. Looked like that was our first live game. The first live stuff is usually against yourselves. That’s the worst Navy game we’ve every played. That’s my fault. I chose to block bags and tackle donuts. All my fault”
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) September 8, 2020
Should a team playing two games be able to qualify to win a trophy? Probably not. Should a coach that just lost the season opener by seven touchdowns be focused on such things? Absolutely not.
Tulane squeaked out a win in their first game defeating South Alabama 27-24. They had four rushing touchdowns, none of which came from leading back Tyjae Spears – who finished the game with 105 yards on only 11 carries.
This is to say they have great depth at running back and will use it in this one. One team is focused on turning one victory into a winning streak to start the year, while the other is focused on all the wrong things. Take the Green Wave to run their record to 2-0 and to do so while covering the 7.5 spread.
PICK: Tulane -7.5 (-110)
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That’s Hockey. Over the years, he’s launched and hosted TSN’s first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That’s Hockey 2Nite.